Pretty new to this so don’t know a whole lot about pacing. Had a fun day at IMTX 70.3 in Galveston yesterday, which was my third tri and second 70.3. Previously I did a sprint that I won and another 70.3.
Did about 235 watts yesterday to average just a hair under 25mph for the whole thing. My run was evenly paced though I faded in the last few miles.
Based on this, can anyone give me an indication of what time I might expect at IMTX next month or what wattage I should shoot for?
3 out of 10 on the troll meter.
Have fun as a pro…
I’d say given similar course and conditions, and getting in the necessary volume, 4:40 is possible.
Just curious, what were your swim and run times?
If you mean my newness to tri, please assume whatever you need to and assume it’s a general question about pacing an IM based on HIM effort.
If you mean my wattage versus speed, I think it’s pretty realistic, especially because I have a Garmin file that proves it.
Swim was mid 30s and definitely my worst discipline. Bike time at my last 70.3, which was also flat, was about 23.8mph last summer, so I’ve definitely improved.
Run time was about a 1:35.
Someone who has done consecutive years doing 70.3’s and is one month out from an ironman is new to triathlon?
I guess that I would say shoot for a 4:49:59, and if that is your first crack at the distance, be very happy with it. You may go faster/slower, but the marathon is no joke. 26 miles is a long ways to run.
Nutrition will be key for sure, don’t ever underestimate that either.
Hoping you have a great day out there, as I am looking very forward to it myself.
I predict you blow up on the run.
Same conditions I’d expect you’d get a 4:46-4:51. Basically the rule of thumb is that your average speed slows by 6-8% with a doubling of volume–assuming you’re capable of doing the longer distance (ie you did enough bike volume before the IM) and your fitness level is fairly constant.
As to power, a good rule of thumb is to target 85% of FTP in a H-IM so your 235 watts would imply an FTP of 276 watts–if you indeed were at 85%. For an IM, you’ll want to be in the 72-75% range (big range I know but there are a lot more variables in an IM bike) so you should target 199-207 watts.
Caveat–I’d want a lot more data to be even remotely confident about this but based on what you shared this is my best shot FWIW.
Side point–I did 225 watts at a H-IM and did a 2:24 (Eagleman) and 194 at an IM (IMFL) and did 5:06. Therefore, you mnust have a much better CDA than I and/or a way more aero bike. I wouldn’t be surprised by the first because i weigh 180 pounds and I’m 56 years old but I’d highly doubt the latter. Assuming what you reported is true I’d guess you are in your 20s and weigh around 150 pounds and are very flexible…am I right?
Randy, he could also just be a small athlete producing a lot of watts too.
What time did you get out on the bike? Also what where you splits on the out and the back if you don’t mind me asking? The wind did an interesting shift during the morning shifting from a cross/tail out to a cross/(less tail) back (instead of a cross/headwind) for some of the age group waves. 2:15 is a rockstar time regardless. The conditions at IM Texas will probably be a bit more even plus being away from the coast the wind hit/assist will be significantly less. On ~200-210 watts it is possible to go sub 5 on the bike (shown on another post) but you will need a good CdA.
Same conditions I’d expect you’d get a 4:46-4:51. Basically the rule of thumb is that your average speed slows by 6-8% with a doubling of volume–assuming you’re capable of doing the longer distance (ie you did enough bike volume before the IM) and your fitness level is fairly constant.
As to power, a good rule of thumb is to target 85% of FTP in a H-IM so your 235 watts would imply an FTP of 276 watts–if you indeed were at 85%. For an IM, you’ll want to be in the 72-75% range (big range I know but there are a lot more variables in an IM bike) so you should target 199-207 watts.
Caveat–I’d want a lot more data to be even remotely confident about this but based on what you shared this is my best shot FWIW.
Side point–I did 225 watts at a H-IM and did a 2:24 (Eagleman) and 194 at an IM (IMFL) and did 5:06. Therefore, you mnust have a much better CDA than I and/or a way more aero bike. I wouldn’t be surprised by the first because i weigh 180 pounds and I’m 56 years old but I’d highly doubt the latter. Assuming what you reported is true I’d guess you are in your 20s and weigh around 150 pounds and are very flexible…am I right?
History would suggest that it will be a tad warmer than it was yesterday.
Agreed. That’s what I meant by 150 pounds, which to me is small! Dev…these are your kinda numbers…are you the OP in disguise?
Pretty new to this so don’t know a whole lot about pacing. Had a fun day at IMTX 70.3 in Galveston yesterday, which was my third tri and second 70.3. Previously I did a sprint that I won and another 70.3.
What time did you get out on the bike? Also what where you splits on the out and the back if you don’t mind me asking? The wind did an interesting shift during the morning shifting from a cross/tail out to a cross/(less tail) back (instead of a cross/headwind) for some of the age group waves. 2:15 is a rockstar time regardless. The conditions at IM Texas will probably be a bit more even plus being away from the coast the wind hit/assist will be significantly less. On ~200-210 watts it is possible to go sub 5 on the bike (shown on another post) but you will need a good CdA.
Right around 2:15 for 25mph average. Out I averaged right at 26mph and back a little under 23mph.
I think CdA is generally good based on that other thread (“post your average speed/watts from last race”). On a Trek SC 9 (old version), 808 FC front, wheelbuilder disc cover rear, one water bottle behind saddle, water bottle between bars, good aero helmet, one piece tri suit, nothing hanging off bike, etc. And got a professional fit that got me as low as possible where I wasn’t sacrificing too much power. Averaged 25mph at 235 watts, previously on a flat course averaged a little under 24mph at 223 watts. So maybe the wind helped a bit.
Randy, sadly these are not my numbers. My neck is still very tight to go any lower, so my numbers were more like 2:26 off 214W (rode out at 206, returned riding 222). My top line watts (my FTP) are low, and my position is like a parachute. I need courses like St. Croix or IM France to make use of watts per kilo (although the numerator needs to shed 2.5 kilos too in 4 weeks…business travel is not helping…7 weeks out of the last 10). The crazy thing is 150 lbs to me is big. Heck 145 lbs is big (I’m pushing that range now)…need to be 136!!!
My guess is the OP goes 4:50 off 200W at IM Texas as it is also slightly less windy there.
Randy, he could also just be a small athlete producing a lot of watts too.
I would expect a faster run then though.
2:15 Bike and 1:35 Run seems a bit unbalanced to me. Either the OP could use more run fitness or back off on the bike 3-4 minutes and try to run 7-8 minutes faster. Admittedly easier said than done!
Randy, sadly these are not my numbers. My neck is still very tight to go any lower, so my numbers were more like 2:26 off 214W (rode out at 206, returned riding 222). My top line watts (my FTP) are low, and my position is like a parachute. I need courses like St. Croix or IM France to make use of watts per kilo (although the numerator needs to shed 2.5 kilos too in 4 weeks…business travel is not helping…7 weeks out of the last 10). The crazy thing is 150 lbs to me is big. Heck 145 lbs is big (I’m pushing that range now)…need to be 136!!!
My guess is the OP goes 4:50 off 200W at IM Texas as it is also slightly less windy there.
I swear we are twins. I went 2:21 off 215W (207 out and 223 in). Only difference is I weigh 165. Maybe my position is better than I thought. 
If only I could lose 5-10 lbs. 
I believe it. I think I can ride about 2:19 on 242 Watts at IM Kansas, which is a much hillier course… and 2:16 at Steelhead. I’m 163lbs, 5’11" and ride a Trek SC7.5, not a “superbike”. So a smaller guy on a superbike on a flatter course, sure, why not. I’m riding 21.8mph with a road helmet, 25mm gatorskin rear, 23mm GP front on box rims plus a jacket and 3 bottles (1 more than race trim)… on 230 Watts. Yes a BDB, but I worked hard on the trainer this winter and refining my aero position since last Fall… I need to post a picture so ST can tear my a new one.
I wonder if for a first time IM is 200 Watts is a little aggressive? 190-195 might be a better target. I’m thinking of dialing it back to 0.69 a stay very conservative, but still post a solid time. Why risk folding on the run and losing 20 minutes jus to save 5 minutes on the bike? Fine for a veteran of 3 or 4 IM’s to take that chance. But that’s just me.
I think he goes 4:50 off 195 if he doesn’t carry 3+ bottles. Hell, if you want to take a “risk” carry just 2.
4:40-4:50 seems reasonable, I’m a pretty similar athlete, did 2 HIM splits last year in 2:17 and 2:18 off 240 watts with fair wind, so 2:15 off 235 watts with helpful wind makes a lot of sense to me. I rode 4:41 in IMFL with almost no wind for the first 3 hours, then a light tailwind home, off just over 190 watts, so 4:45-4:50 in fair wind at similar power seems reasonable. The key to maximizing low power on flat courses is to utilize the reckless fools early in the race passing you (within the legal drafting rules, of course), and be ready to push a little harder when you’re alone to close the gap to the next guys up the road.